Science (or simple human guessing capability) competes with Octopus Oracle Paul...
I have been working for a while now at the German Institut for Economic Research. Very industriously they publish studies, research papers, books, brochures, articles etc. on any imaginable topic that concerns the economic and social life in Germany and in the globe.
So, taking the advantage of the time spending there, I treat myself to wide spectrum of interesting scientific works prepared by various intellectuals. Last week I have come across this research note entitled "Money : Chance = Spain Wins 2010 Football World Cup" published in June this year, apparently well before the World Cup final between Germany and Spain.Very amazed I have learned that this scientists have predicted that Spain would be the next world champions, by using a simple kind of method: guessing by the obvious! :)
What they have done is doing research on the "transfer market value of the teams" taking part in the World Cup finals in South Africa and simply making a list. Consequently they have found out that Spain tops this list of monetary value. Of course, how they have determined the so-called transfer market value of the participant teams and how they have controlled and treated the other variables that might have played a role in the run up to the final is also important. However, their starting point, I mean, this simple thought "money rules", is really striking...
I must add here that this is another good point for the young German team playing against Spain in the final, although the "Panzers" were ranking the 7th in the transfer market value classification. In other words, they forged ahead of England, Argentina, Italy, France and Brasil! Investing in youngsters is the best investment for the future, and this might one day beat the power of money... Congrats to Yogi Löw! And I hope that Turkish National Team would follow the same route as Germany...I am still very amazed. You can dowload this publication at this link: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.357201.de/rn36.pdf
I look forward to your comments!
- After having read this blog post, some of the visitors have forwarded to me some additional links about this subject. Thanks very much!
Another study by the DIW
So wird man Weltmeister
Geld besiegt Zufall
Spanien wird Weltmeister
Studie: Marktwert gegen Zufall
economics is an application of scientific methods. in this sense I think your title is misleading. This is just confirmation bias in action, just as the octopus Paul. If it were a scientific method, one would have to account for the consistent failure of the "method" to predict everyone except the champion.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comment. That title means that people simply can and should rely on their capacity when making intelligent guesses, but not on an animal or whatsoever to predict something... And, after having read the research note, you still think that the DIW-research is not based on scientific method, I am afraid, you should complain about it at the German government ;)
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